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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.